A warm welcome to all of you following and those who are lurking out there. You know who you are. Feel free to pass on the website address if you think others you know would be interested to follow this as I can guarantee the great plains will deliver. And it looks like delivery will begin straight away with a slight risk issued by the NWS for the potential target area.
Current indications are for a 500 mb shortwave trough to develop over the coming days with a weaker shortwave ejection occuring on Sunday. This is going to have a couple of effects on the plains: Induce height falls (because of overlying cold air, cold air doesn't take up so much room) in the North, and in the Southern plains (the area in Oklahoma/Texas) which will see storms develop along the classic dryline scenario:
Notice the steep gradient in dewpoint temperature that extends across Oklahoma, Kansas and Texas? Thats what we are looking for, if you see it on the plains the air to the east is muggy and murky while the air is dry to the west, its a really sharp boundary that you can cross in less than a kilometere. With ample shear this southern zone might prove quite active on Sunday.
But what about that other area? The moisture is wrapping around a forming low pressure system, generating a small buldge in the dryline. Along this the weak shortwave will come into play and generate Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) to 2500 which is quite unstable (not for the plains though) and steep lapse rates along with reasonable shear should see supercells with very large hail and possibly a few tornadoes.
So the question leading up to this is South or North? Or somewhere completely difference (Central KS for instance). Only time will tell.